The Bayesian Sinking: Sorting Facts from Fiction and Opinions

(EDITOR’S NOTE: This article is being updated regularly as new information about the Bayesian sinking becomes available.)

In February 2012, the yacht Yogi sank in a severe storm off Greece after encountering mechanical failure. The captain and seven crewmembers were the only people aboard, and all escaped with their lives. As often happens with bad news, the incident made international headlines. The sinking coincided with a yacht show in Miami, too, making conversations—and conjecturing—easier and faster. This past week, with the Bayesian sinking on August 19, similar super-fast chatter has happened, aided by social media and the World Wide Web in general.

Having questions is natural. The Italian Coast Guard, the UK’s Marine Accident Investigation Branch (MAIB), and other government agencies do, too. That is why they are conducting investigations. We at Megayacht News have questions as well, but we are not privy to the full details that these authorities are analyzing. And that is the point: No one else is, either. That has not stopped rumors or assertions without basis. Therefore, the following will help sort facts from conjecture.

The 184-foot (56-meter) yacht was at anchor in Sicily on August 19 when severe weather hit. Initially, based on CCTV footage and eyewitness accounts, authorities believed that a tornado or waterspout struck her. The captain informed media last week that no one aboard saw the weather coming. On August 24, the public prosecutor’s office in Termini Imerese, governing the yacht’s anchorage, confirmed a sudden, rapid storm. It further revealed that a downburst likely hit Bayesian. Downbursts descend from thunderstorms and spread out rapidly once hitting the ground. They additionally can cause damage similar to that of tornadoes. Meteorologists say people commonly believe they saw or experienced a tornado when a downburst occurred. Related, some media have published a reported weather map depicting the downburst. We are awaiting independent verification. (UPDATE, MAY 16, 2025: The interim MAIB report reveals a mesocyclonic storm likely occured, with possible hurricane-force winds.)

The downburst details refute assertions by Giovanni Costantino, chairman of The Italian Sea Group, which owns Perini Navi. In multiple media interviews on August 21 an 22, he insists that the storm was predicted, adding that sailing vessels are “unsinkable” and blaming the crew, due to “a very long summation of errors.” The forecast for the area for August 19 did call for storms, but not to the severity that resulted. Furthermore, all vessels can sink. Just as importantly, the sinking investigation has not yet determined responsibility or even suggested anyone did anything incorrectly. Costantino is not an “expert,” as some articles have labeled him, in yacht construction or engineering. Neither does he have more information on what occurred compared to investigators or those who were aboard.

What is known is that 22 people were aboard. Seven died, while 15 escaped (some with injuries) via a liferaft. The captain and crew of a nearby unimpacted sailing yacht assisted the survivors before the Coast Guard arrived. The captain of that vessel, Karsten Borner, informed media that he and his first mate saw a red flare, which drew them to the liferaft’s position. He added that the yacht disappeared from the water quite quickly.

The 15 survivors include six passengers, the captain, and eight crewmembers. Meanwhile, the seven who died include Recaldo Thomas, Bayesian’s chef. They also include Mike Lynch, a software entrepreneur who owned the yacht with his wife (who survived), and their daughter Hannah. Two additional British citizens, Jonathan and Judy Bloomer, as well as two American citizens, Chris Morvillo and his wife Neda died, too. Jonathan Bloomer was chairman of Morgan Stanley International and chair of the insurance company Hiscox. Judy Bloomer was a former trustee for the UK charity The Eve Appeal, focused on gynecological cancers. Chris Morvillo was a partner at the law firm Clifford Chance, and his wife Neda was a jewelry designer.

Multiple headlines virtually scream about a manslaughter investigation, and articles insinuate the captain and crew are guilty. These reporters didn’t do their homework. The prosecutor’s office automatically investigates all incidents within its jurisdiction. The purpose is to determine whether a crime occurred and, if so, bring formal charges. This information is plainly on the prosecutor’s office website. Since the yacht sat anchored not far from shore, prosecutors specifically are looking into the potential of manslaughter and of causing a shipwreck through negligence. They will examine why other vessels had no damage, for example, and whether those who died received warning to escape. Scrutiny doesn’t impact just one person or group, either. Rather, prosecutors are reviewing actions by the captain, crew, builder, yacht manager, and more. Perini Navi built the yacht in 2008 as Salute. As Bayesian, she is under Camper & Nicholsons’ management. Prosecutors say all parties so far are cooperating.

Similarly, MAIB investigators are seeking details about various parties’ iactions, as part of its normal process. The MAIB is involved because Bayesian flies the British flag. (UPDATE, SEPTEMBER 6, 2024: A U.S. Coast Guard spokesperson informs us it is supporting the MAIB’s investigation as a Substantially Interested State. A Substantially Interested State, or SIS, is a country that has significant interest in a marine accident or casualty for a number of reasons. With the sinking of Bayesian, it’s due to the deaths of two American citizens. Additionally, the Coast Guard spokesperson says the U.S. National Transportation Safety Board received, and accepted, an invitation from the MAIB to participate as an SIS.)

Neither the prosecutor’s office nor the MAIB has revealed a deadline. This is typical. In fact, the prosecutor’s office says that it is still quite early in the investigation. Every marine accident is different, so apples-to-apples comparisons cannot occur. Generally speaking, it could be months to a year before all conclusions become public. Survivors need interviewing, as do eyewitnesses. The Italian prosecutor’s office also would like to examine Bayesian after salvage operations. The Bayesian sinking occurred in about 164 feet (50 meters) of water, where she currently lies on her starboard side. Divers involved in searching for the seven who died indicate the yacht appears intact. Indeed, early reports on August 19 that her mast snapped were inaccurate. The Italian Coast Guard confirmed it remains intact, and that the visible hull and superstructure sections are intact. The Coast Guard used remote-operated underwater vehicles with cameras to verify these.

Notably, the prosecutor’s office hasn’t said it requires the salvage of Bayesian. However, officials did indicate that the owners and managers are cooperating with them. Salvaging the yacht can provide crucial information for the investigation, and the families of victims and survivors. The universal truth about salvage is that it’s a complex process. The depth of the water in this situation is one complicating factor, for instance. So is weather. Overall, salvaging the superyacht could take several weeks, and cost millions of dollars. Crews will need cranes and other specialized equipment, all operating at a slow, careful pace to ensure the yacht, filled with water, remains intact. (UPDATE, MAY 16, 2025: Salvage work began last week but halted due to a diver dying. It should should begin again soon, lasting about a month. Prior plans for January were called off due to less-than-deal wintertime conditions.)

The investigations into the Bayesian sinking will look into all possible contributing factors. The mast measures 237 feet (72.27 meters) above the designed waterline. Overall, multiple considerations go into mast height, including the intended use of the yacht, sail area, rigging, and weight. Perini Navi’s Mast Division created it with the University of Genoa’s department of naval architecture and engineering. For insight into its construction, the overall yacht construction, and keel-related operations, read this thorough explanation from her former captain, Stephen Edwards. He helmed her for five years, through 2020.

Furthermore, the yacht held American Bureau of Shipping (ABS) classification since delivery, with her last survey in March 2023 according to the shipping-information database Equasis. British flag-state officials also had the particulars of her mast design and her maximum righting moment. This is the greatest amount of force that can apply without causing the yacht to capsize. (UPDATE, MAY 16, 2025: The interim MAIB report, linked above, found the mast was responsible for half the total wind heeling moment in a study when winds were directly on her beam.) 

Edwards also notably references downflooding. This is the angle at which water can enter (flood) into a vessel through an opening like a vent that cannot be weathertight if closed. Downflooding detrimentally impacts stability and can occur quickly. Investigators will examine this as well in the course of their work. In the meantime, Phil Friedman, a longtime yachting professional with design and shipyard-management experience, has written a detailed explanation of righting moment and downflooding, including questions where he notes only “could be“ answers exist.

Overall, “could be“ discussions are valid, as long as writers and commentators frame them that way and root them in fact (as Friedman and others have done). “Definitely“ is yet to come. Like the investigators, reserve judgment until you have all the facts.