An interim report on the Bayesian sinking from the UK’s Marine Accident Investigation Branch (MAIB) notes that sudden, violent winds forced the yacht beyond a recoverable heeling angle. It additionally states that a stability document provided limited information about her vulnerability in storms.
The 184-footer (56-meter) sank in Sicily on August 19 last year. Seven people aboard died, while 15 escaped via a liferaft. They received additional assistance from the captain and crew of a nearby unimpacted sailing yacht. The 15 survivors include six passengers, the captain, and eight crewmembers. The seven who died include Recaldo Thomas, Bayesian’s chef. They also include Mike Lynch, a software entrepreneur who owned the yacht with his wife (who survived), and their daughter Hannah. Two additional British citizens, Jonathan and Judy Bloomer, plus two American citizens, Chris Morvillo and his wife Neda, died as well. Jonathan Bloomer was chairman of Morgan Stanley International and chair of the insurance company Hiscox. Judy Bloomer was a former trustee for the UK charity The Eve Appeal, focused on gynecological cancers. Chris Morvillo was a partner at the law firm Clifford Chance, and his wife Neda was a jewelry designer.
For the interim report on the Bayesian sinking, MAIB analyzed multiple details. Weather forecasts and how likely conditions at the time impacted her were among them. They also included the yacht’s stability booklet, a document kept onboard and provided for flag state and classification records.
According to the report, the evening of August 18, the captain instructed two deckhands on overnight watch to wake him if winds exceeded 20 knots or the anchor was dragging. At the time, seas were calm and winds were light. Just before 4 a.m. on August 19, one deckhand noted 30-knot wind on the bow’s port side. Bayesian began listing and dragging her anchor “in the rapidly worsening weather,” investigators say. The deckhand woke the captain around 4 a.m., and they both headed to the flying bridge. The captain and chief engineer prepared to move Bayesian.
However, the wind abruptly rose upwards of 70 knots. “At 0406, Bayesian violently heeled over to 90° to starboard, taking less than 15 seconds to do so,” investigators indicate. Once water came over the starboard rails, it entered the interior down stairways within seconds. Crew and guests climbed stairway walls to escape onto deck. By 4:24 a.m., the yacht had sunk.
In examining weather reports published earlier that evening, investigators reveal that Italian forecasters predicted thunderstorms with local gusts. Approximately 5 nautical miles northwest of Bayesian’s anchorage at 3:52 a.m., winds suddenly increased from around 5 knots to 41 knots. Investigators’ analysis of satellite imagery revealed a mesocyclonic storm quite likely developed, with the probability of an associated supercell. Mesocyclonic storms contain rotating winds that appear on radar but aren’t necessarily visibly observable. Supercells contain damaging winds and can spur tornadoes or waterspouts. Updrafts and downdrafts are often involved, too. Specifically, the report says the study of the conditions and local observations indicate possible hurricane-force winds well in excess of 64 knots when the accident occurred. “These winds were sufficient to knock Bayesian beyond its angle of vanishing stability,” which was 70.6°.
Finally, the interim report on the Bayesian sinking finds that the yacht’s stability booklet contained limited information about her vulnerability in storms. Builders provide stability booklets to flag states and classification societies for approval. Captains keep them aboard, too, and provide them to subsequent captains and owners. The booklet revealed her maximum heeling angle before downflooding in a sudden gust or squall when her lifting keel was down. However, no information pertained to sudden squalls or gusts with her keel up, at anchor or under engine power. These same scenarios would see her sails furled. The large-yacht code during her construction in 2008 didn’t require these details.
Investigators commissioned a study with a scale model replicating the assumed conditions at the time of the accident. It found the mast was responsible for half the total wind heeling moment when winds were directly on her beam. Bayesian’s mast is 237 feet (72.27 meters) above the designed waterline. The remaining percentage primarily came from the rigging and furled sails. Investigators further say the mast’s profile produced a degree of effective lift, increasing the heeling moment from the wind, peaking in winds about 20° off the bow. Ultimately, “The study indicated that if the wind was blowing directly onto Bayesian’s beam and the yacht was in the ‘motoring’ condition, a gusting wind speed in excess of 63.4kts would likely result in the vessel capsizing,” the report states.
Also today, James Healy-Pratt, a partner at Keystone Law, which represents the family of Bayesian’s chef, released a statement. “The Thomas family firmly believe that Rick (Recaldo) died doing his job, and that his death was preventable,” it reads. “They have serious concerns about a series of failures evidently involved in the causes of this tragedy—failures in the design, safety certification, and seaworthiness of the Bayesian, as well as the management by some of the crew to deal with a forecast mesocyclone storm.” It continues, “They know that further evidence and analysis is required in areas including downflooding and seamanship, and they await the final MAIB safety report and its inevitable list of safety recommendations.”
The MAIB will release its final report later this year, after investigators have examined the salvaged yacht. Salvage operations began this month, though halted within the past week following the death of a diver. The MAIB’s investigation is occurring concurrently with a criminal investigation by a Sicilian public prosecutor’s office. That investigation has limited the MAIB’s access to some information. Additional information from the prosecutor’s office or the salvaged yacht may lead the MAIB to revise its findings (available for download).
Industry trade associations further await the final findings. However, some are already considering safety-related changes based on the interim report on the Bayesian sinking. The Superyacht Builders Association (SYBAss), representing 25 such shipyards, is among them. It especially notes that stability calculations under the large yacht code could undergo re-evaluation. “SYBAss is studying the provisional findings and will incorporate them into the consultative process we are continually undertaking to improve superyacht projects,” explains Theo Hooning, its secretary general. “The addition of the interim report to our ongoing work will help us to understand better any implications for improving the safety of superyachts—both motor and sail—in anticipation of the conclusions of the full investigation, expected to be completed later this year.”
Natalie Page
Having worked on yachts for over 30 years and many nautical miles, weather and other circumstances, I am relieved to find the MIAB investigation points to the power of Mother Nature. Which unless you have been there, you would not understand. Weather can be beyond mans control or comprehension. I feel for the crew who must be going through hell and it will stay with them for the rest of their life and same for the guest survivors. This is such a very sad tradgedy, people, lawyers, interested parties all want to bring someone or thing to the table to vindicate, accuse and procecute but Mother Nature is not a physical presence you can not bring her to the table, sue her, take her to court, make her pay, she can be beautiful and she can be a killer. God rest the souls and god help the survivors to deal with their emotions and lives.