A preliminary report by Italian prosecutors investigating the sinking of Bayesian appears to indicate stormy weather was not the cause. Instead, it finds, the Bayesian crew is responsible.
The public prosecutor’s office in Termini Imerese, Italy has been looking into the sinking since it occurred in August 2024. British media outlet Sky News quotes an unidentified source connected to the findings. The source says the weather that night was “little more than a squall, a sudden increase in wind speed that precedes thunderstorms and downpours.” Furthermore, the findings reportedly say, the crew acting improperly, underestimating the weather, and failing to activate safety devices correctly all led to the sinking.
We contacted the public prosecutor’s office to request a copy of the report. We didn’t receive a response by press time.
The quoted statement and findings contradict the interim report on the sinking by the UK’s Marine Accident Investigation Branch (MAIB). Released in May 2025, it says that sudden, violent winds upwards of 70 knots forced the yacht beyond a recoverable heeling angle. Furthermore, the MAIB indicates that the yacht’s stability booklet contained limited information about her vulnerability in storms. Nothing in the booklet pertained to sudden squalls or gusts with her keel up, whether at anchor or under engine power. The MAIB’s report preceded the salvage of Bayesian, which occurred the following month. Its final report is still pending, with no set date for release.
Notably, the Italian prosecutor’s preliminary findings contradict statements by Giovanni Costantino, chairman of The Italian Sea Group. The Italian Sea Group owns Perini Navi, which built Bayesian. In multiple media interviews, he has insisted that sailing vessels are “unsinkable.” Additionally, he alleges that the crew failed to heed weather warnings and lower the keel. He further blames the Bayesian crew for leaving hatches or doors open, allowing water ingress. In January of this year, The Italian Sea Group sued the captain, two crewmembers, and the holding company of Bayesian. It’s seeking €456 million (about $537 million at press time) for reputational harm and loss of sales.
On August 18, 2024, the 184-foot (56-meter) sailing superyacht was anchored about 984 feet (300 meters) from shore in Porticello, Sicily. The owners, Mike Lynch and his wife Angela Bacares, were aboard with their daughter Hannah plus several business associates and friends. So, too, were the captain and nine crewmembers. Around 4 a.m. on August 19, security cameras on land captured a sudden, dramatic storm and the yacht’s mast lights going dark. By 4:30 a.m., Bayesian sank in about 164 feet (50 meters) of water. Although 15 people escaped, seven died. They were Lynch, his daughter, Lynch’s four friends and colleagues, and Recaldo Thomas, Bayesian’s chef.
Italian prosecutors may still consider pressing charges against the captain and two of the crew. Negligent shipwreck and manslaughter are among the potential charges.
Peter Reynolds
Clearly, the only people to blame are the Italian government for granting the yacht a safety certificate. It is impossible to wind tunnel test such a large mast, so it can never be tested, which is the only way to test it’s stability in a squall. (exactly like wind turnnel tests of planes)(models won’t scale up in terms of their response to high winds)
The only way out of this for the government is to blame the crew and threaten them with manslaughter charges unless they own up to their supposed culpability, in return for a much lesser sentence. (suspended etc) I said this on youtube soon after the event.
Bruce
Imo this is a ‘Motor yacht’ Not a yacht or so called super yacht!.
I have read numerous reports over past year or more about this & as an amateur yachtie in Auckland NZ it beggars belief to me why no single report from many professionals have yet to name this vessel a ‘motor yacht’
Like many incidents, tragedies, accidents or whatever this is called historically it always in the end is caused by not only one bad issue happening at the time.
(namely Concorde)
Clearly the being a motor yacht the build of the vessel is designed around guest & owner comfort & not all out blue water Ocean passages!
Therefore multiple hatches & walk ways on outer extremities of vessel as opposed to the centre line on a serious or even normal type of ‘proper’ sailing vessel..
This being the case that appears to put the Bayesian in the ‘angle of down flooding’ at less than 50’ !
Much more I could comment but will leave it here for now.
Definitely very sad case for all concerned.
Clerveus aravna
Good
Shaun M White
The reports of Italian authorities blaming the crew are disapointing and unjust. Perini never did share terrible storm performance calcs with the owners or the crew. For a yacht to be unrecoverable with a list above 48 degrees is bizarre. This is criminal negligence on the part of Perini and their attack on a heroic crew is terrible. Who would buy a sailing yacht that cannot withstand 73 knots wind but more importantly a sailing yacht that cannot survive 48 degrees. Most blue water yachts can survive complete roll overs. Also the calculated rollover results should show a boat can recover from capsize with a wave 1/3 of the incident wave that rolled it. This yacht cannot recover a capsize at all. !!!
Vaughan Feaver
This was definitely a planned an executed act of criminal manslaughter, the vessel dragged its anchor for 4 nautical miles, alarms would be heard on bridge, skippers cabin and engineer’s cabin, crew could have saved the incident, but it was a planned act
Diane M. Byrne
What is your souce for the 4 nautical miles reference? The MAIB preliminary report and AIS tracking don’t appear to support that.
PAUL TEW
Having sailed and skippered yachts in a number of places around the world I would have to say that retracting keels on blue water yacht are not common. This alone places some responsibility on the designer builder to give clean warning regarding instability with the keel retracted, my understand is that it must have had a very deep draft when fully lowered. On the other hand ,the skipper allowing the keel to be retracted at all in 50 meters of water is very serious negligence on his or her behalf.